A new report by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) has warned that US higher education faces a looming enrollment crisis, driven by declining numbers of international students, immigrants, and their US-born children. The study projects that between 2022 and 2037, undergraduate enrollment could shrink by nearly 5 million and graduate enrollment by more than 1.1 million if present demographic and policy trends continue. Such a steep fall would not only threaten the finances of many universities but could also reshape the country’s academic landscape, long admired for its diversity and global reach.

International students have traditionally been vital to the American university system, contributing both cultural richness and financial support. They often pay higher tuition fees than domestic students and add billions to the US economy through living expenses and travel. Many smaller colleges, particularly those outside major cities, rely heavily on this inflow to sustain programs and operations. A sharp decline, as highlighted in the report, could put their survival in jeopardy.

Adding to the challenge is the demographic shift within the US. Declining birth rates are producing fewer college-age students, while tighter immigration policies have reduced the inflow of families who historically offset this shortfall. The NFAP cautions that without corrective action, mid-tier and regional institutions lacking the brand recognition of elite universities may face closures, mergers, or program cuts.

The risks extend beyond finances. International students play a key role in STEM programs and research, areas central to America’s global competitiveness. A decline could weaken the nation’s standing in innovation, especially as countries like Canada, the UK, and Australia step up efforts to attract global talent.

Experts argue that policy reforms—such as friendlier visa rules, stronger immigrant pathways, and targeted recruitment—are essential. The NFAP warns that without decisive action, US higher education’s diversity and global leadership could face irreversible decline.