India’s top IT services companies have been flaunting record numbers in total contract value, but analysts and investors are increasingly questioning whether these flashy deal tallies translate into actual growth. While firms such as TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech, and Tech Mahindra have reported record-breaking TCVs—TCS secured $12.2 billion in a single quarter—revenue growth has remained subdued, with margins under pressure. 

Total contract value serves as a headline-grabbing metric, highlighting future potential. But in the absence of matching revenue realizations, it risks becoming a smokescreen. Analysts have observed that this year, while Indian IT firms won big-ticket multi-year contracts, actual revenue trends lagged behind. For example, despite Wipro closing $1.8 billion in large deals in Q4 FY25, it projected sequential revenue declines of 1.5%–3.5% for the next quarter.

The widening gap between TCV and reported revenue is particularly acute this fiscal year. In Q4 FY25, TCS booked $12.2 billion in contract value—up from $10.2 billion in Q3—but its revenue growth was limited to just 1%. Meanwhile, Infosys and HCLTech similarly posted high deal volumes yet retained conservative guidance due to delays in project ramp-up and cautious client spending.

One major disruptor is the macroeconomic environment. Rising inflation, geopolitical volatility, and trade tensions—especially new U.S. policies—have led clients in sectors like manufacturing, retail, and logistics to freeze or delay discretionary IT spending. Projects are being evaluated more critically, slowing execution and delaying revenue realization.

At the same time, the AI revolution is reshaping cost structures. While leading firms are increasingly automating software development using generative AI and delivering more efficiently, clients are demanding a share of the cost savings, pushing renegotiations and compressing pricing. Margin improvement remains elusive even as operational efficiencies rise.

In contrast, global consulting giant Accenture has outpaced its Indian counterparts in securing mega deals. Accenture landed 62 contracts exceeding $100 million in the first half of FY25 and 125 such deals in FY24, powered by its consulting-led approach and early adoption of GenAI tools. Indian firms, while winning many deals above $30 million, have struggled to match Accenture’s scale.

One silver lining for Indian IT is demand from the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) sector—which is less affected by goods tariffs and remains stable. Infosys and other firms with strong exposure to BFSI have managed to deliver modest growth even as other sectors slow.

Despite industry-wide optimism, the narrative is shifting from deal wins to skepticism over execution. Analysts warn that TCV without timely conversion can raise investor questions. Several brokerages—tracking earnings—note weak forward guidance, delayed salary hikes, and ongoing cost cuts as indicators of underlying stress.

Going into FY26, Indian IT firms face a crucial test: turning contract wins into sustainable revenue and margin growth. With global uncertainties persisting, analysts emphasize that execution discipline and faster deal rollout will determine whether the impressive TCV backdrop translates into real performance. Until then, deal wins may signal strong headline attention—but little operational truth.