India’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal year is anticipated to be between 6.1 and 6.7 percent, a decline from the over 8 percent growth seen in the previous three quarters, according to various economists’ projections.

The GDP figures for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and the provisional estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal year are expected to be announced by the government on May 31.

In the first three quarters of the 2023-24 fiscal year, the Indian economy grew by 8.2 percent in the June quarter, 8.1 percent in the September quarter, and 8.4 percent in the December quarter. For comparison, India’s GDP grew by 6.1 percent in the March quarter of the 2022-23 fiscal year, with an overall growth rate of 7 percent for the entire 2022-23 fiscal year, as estimated on May 31, 2023.

GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced within a specific period, whereas GVA (Gross Value Added) is calculated by subtracting net taxes (gross tax collection minus subsidies) from GDP.

On Tuesday, domestic rating agency ICRA projected that India’s GDP growth would slow to a four-quarter low of 6.7 percent in the March quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal year. ICRA also estimated a 7.8 percent GDP growth for the entire 2023-24 fiscal year. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank, in its April monetary policy review, projected a 7 percent GDP growth for the 2023-24 fiscal year.